THE:美聯儲四年多來首次加息 點陣圖顯示后面連著還有9次

在結束兩天的會議后，北京時間今天凌晨，美聯儲宣布加息25個基點。

這是2018年以來美國首次加息。

從新聞稿看，聯儲認為價格壓力是普遍的，不只是能源價格，還有勞動力等，目前的失業率已明顯下降（2月份美國CPI通脹率為7.9%，40年來最高；失業率為3.8%，已接近疫前水平）。

聯儲準備從下次會議開始，減少國債和機構債MBS的持有量。

投票委員中，圣路易斯聯儲主席James Bullard投票加息50個基點。

據FT報道，在會后的記者會上，聯儲主席鮑威爾談到加息是為了應對高通脹和緊張的勞動力市場 extremely tight labor market in high inflation.

點陣圖（dot plot，投票委員對利率區間的預測）顯示，聯儲官員比三個月前調高了利率預測，預計2022年剩下的時間還將加息6次，2023年加息至少3次。聯邦基金利率屆時將達到2.8%，高于影響經濟增長的“中性位置”（多數官員預測的中性利率為2.4%）。

美聯儲戴利：預計美聯儲最快將在3月加息:2月1日消息，美聯儲戴利：預計美聯儲最快將在3月加息。不希望過快上調利率，從而過度抑制經濟增長。若美聯儲在今年年底前加息至1.25%，收緊力度將會是相當大的，不過經濟仍會得到支撐。（金十）[2022/2/1 9:25:08]

美國CPI（1965-2022）

美國勞動參與率（1948-2022）

聯儲新聞稿如下：

March 16, 2022

For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT

美聯儲戴利：支持減少資產購買。:1月7日消息，美聯儲戴利表示，我絕對認為我們需要調整政策，支持減少資產購買。長期通脹預期的錨定也讓我比其他人對通脹螺旋上升的擔憂少了一點。（金十）[2022/1/8 8:33:27]

Indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. Job gains have been strong in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined substantially. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures.

美聯儲梅斯特：預計年末通脹將達3%-4.5%:美聯儲梅斯特表示，經濟已經取得了很大進展，是時候減緩腳步了。 更傾向于在年底前開始縮債，2022年年中之前結束縮減。 利率的改變需要更長的時間。 加息不是今天的話題，是在縮債之后。即使出現一些回落，認為經濟仍將保持強勁。 美國經濟還未達到就業最大化。 美聯儲需要讓經濟繼續向前發展，然后評估利率是否需要調整。預計年末通脹將達3%-4.5%，并在2022年回落。 (金十)[2021/8/28 22:42:27]

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The implications for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain, but in the near term the invasion and related events are likely to create additional upward pressure on inflation and weigh on economic activity.

美聯儲和FinCEN邀請公眾對加密貨幣新規則發表評論:美聯儲與美國財政部金融犯罪執法網絡（FinCEN）邀請公眾對擬議的加密貨幣新規則發表評論。根據新擬議的規則，虛擬資產將被定義為“貨幣”，包括“可兌換的虛擬貨幣(CVC)”和作為法定貨幣的數字資產。據悉，FinCEN在2013年發布的指導意見中首次提到了CVC，它也是美國第一個公開討論如何監管加密的機構。（福布斯）[2020/10/26]

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy, the Committee expects inflation to return to its 2 percent objective and the labor market to remain strong. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/4 to 1/2 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee expects to begin reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at a coming meeting.

摩根溪聯合創始人：美聯儲6萬億美元刺激計劃足以買下48個比特幣的總市值:摩根溪聯合創始人Anthony Pompliano今日在推特上表示，美聯儲的6萬億美元經濟刺激計劃足可以買下比特幣的總市值48次以上。[2020/3/25]

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Esther L. George; Patrick Harker; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action was James Bullard, who preferred at this meeting to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.5 percentage point to 1/2 to 3/4 percent. Patrick Harker voted as an alternate member at this meeting.

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